As we've discussed before on this website, the Sacramento Kings likely need to find an upgrade for Harrison Barnes at the power forward spot if they want to become serious title contenders. And one name that typically comes up in these discussions is Kyle Kuzma.
But what are the benefits of trading for Kuzma? What are the downsides? In this article, we avoid talking about the specifics of what a potential Kuzma trade would look like (although I do pitch an idea at the very end), and instead, we will focus on the pros and cons of bringing Kuzma to Sacramento.
Reason #1 For Trading For Kuzma: Functional Size
As this season has taught us, you need functional size to win big. As a refresher, when we say functional size, we are referring to big dudes with the ability to shoot, put the ball on the floor, guard multiple positions, and protect the rim. In theory, Kuzma gives you most of that.
Kuzma can't really shoot (more on this in a second), but he can definitely put the ball in the bucket. Where Barnes was just in the 56th percentile in scoring volume last year, Kuzma was all the way up in the 92nd percentile (Dunks & Threes). On top of that, Kuzma was in the 70th percentile in unassisted field goal percentage (further proof of his ability to be an autonomous scorer).
Kuzma also gives you plus rim protection at the power forward position (don't forget he's 6'9 with a 7'0 wingspan). In four of the last five seasons, Kuzma has finished in the 54th percentile or higher in block rate in the entire league. During that time span, Barnes has never finished higher than the 10th percentile.
As an overall defender, Kuzma has proven that he can rise to the occasion when put on a competitive roster. In 2020-21, the Los Angeles Lakers were in the 92nd percentile in defensive rating in the 1,925 non-garbage time minutes Kuzma was on the floor for (per Cleaning the Glass).
Reason #1 Against Trading For Kuzma: Hurts Your Spacing
As we alluded to in the last slide, Kuzma can score, but he can't really space. Last season, Kuzma was in just the 31st percentile in 3-point percentage (33.6%). For his career, Kuzma has been above average as a 3-point shooter just twice in seven years.
With that said, raw 3-point shooting isn't a good measure of spacing/shooting. A better indicator is a player's accuracy on wide-open 3-pointers — since those shots are more independent of context. Anyway, that measure isn't too kind to Kuzma, either.
In the last three years, Kuzma has been shooting just 34% on wide-open threes, which is in just the 26th percentile during that time (per the Thinking Basketball database).
With De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis already viewed as below-average shooters/spacers for their positions, it would be really hard to give big minutes to another below-average spacer (which Kuzma clearly is for his position).
To be fair, the new rules have made it easier to win without spacing by prioritizing physicality. However, as the 2024 NBA Finals have shown us, this strategy can be countered by a team that combines great physicality with great spacing (like the Boston Celtics). Regardless, Kuzma's lack of spacing is of great concern to any team that ends up trading for him, let alone one with the Kings' personnel.
Reason #2 For Trading Kuzma: Very Good Contract
Kuzma is entering the second year of a four-year, 90-million dollar deal (per Spotrac). That's an average annual value of 22.5 million dollars. That's about the going rate for a starting-caliber player in 2024. For instance, names like Andrew Wiggins, RJ Barrett, Terry Rozier, and Cameron Johnson all made a similar amount last season.
But the great part about this specific contract is that it decreases in yearly value as the contract goes on. So, the first year (which was 2023-24) was the most expensive, while the final season (2026-27) will be the cheapest. That means that while the going rate for starters keeps getting more expensive, Kuzma's annual salary will keep getting more affordable.
Year | Annual Value |
|---|---|
2023-24 | 25.6 million |
2024-25 | 23.5 million |
2025-26 | 21.5 million |
2026-27 | 19.4 million |
This contract isn't too dissimilar in its size and setup to Dillion Brooks, who signed a four-year, 86-million dollar deal that decreases in yearly value as the years go on.
If the Kings trade for Kuzma, they will acquire a power forward who offers functional size, is cost-controlled over the next three years, and is at the heart of his prime (still just 28 years old). This would be a great get for a team that is getting ready to start Sabonis' extension (four-year, 186-million dollar deal) and to negotiate De'Aaron Fox's extension in the very near future (oh, and Keegan Murray will also need a rookie extension pretty soon).
Reason #2 Against Trading For Kuzma: A Little Bit Of A Ball Stopper
Today's NBA game is all about read-and-react basketball. Get the ball, and in .5 seconds, decide whether you want to pass, drive, or shoot. Few teams stand for this philosophy the way the Kings do. Last season, they were second (behind only the Indiana Pacers) in passes made per game.
Kuzma will certainly put a dent in that crusade. On average, he held the ball for 3.32 seconds per touch last season. That is kind of a lot for a player who is supposed to function more as a play-finisher. For reference, Julius Randle (a player who gets a lot of flack for being a ball stopper) only held the ball for 3.15 seconds per touch in 2023-24.
Then again, some of this could just be Kuzma playing on a team lacking in offensive firepower. In Los Angeles, he did a great job fitting in with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. However, those teams were predicated more on their defense than their offense (they were only 11th in offensive rating in 2019-20). So, it is still up for debate how strong an offense featuring Kuzma can be.
Overall, this may sound like a cop-out, but I think I really need to see the terms of the deal before I decide whether I like the idea of the Kings trading for Kuzma or not.
Kuzma is a younger (by four years) and better power forward than Barnes. But I don't know that his strengths outweigh his weaknesses so much that I'd be willing to part ways with Barnes, Huerter, and multiple draft assets for Kuzma.
Maybe some combination of the two and a matching salary would work for me. For instance, I'd be open to a Kuzma trade where we gave up Barnes, Chris Duarte, and a first round pick in exchange for his services.
At the end of the day, I like a lot of what Kuzma can bring to this team, but he wouldn't be my ideal big name to trade for this offseason.