The rollercoaster ride that is the Ben Simmons-to-Sacramento rumors have encountered another hiccup; The Athletic’s Sam Amick reported two weeks ago the Sacramento Kings made it clear to the Philadelphia 76ers that neither De’Aaron Fox nor Tyrese Haliburton will be included in their end of any Simmons trade. I strongly agree with the Kings regarding this decision; Simmons is arguably better player than either Fox or Haliburton right now but the latter two provide more potential in playoff game scenarios than what Simmons has shown thus far, despite them not having made the show just yet.
Also according to Amick, the Kings expect “The core of their roster will remain the same heading into training camp later this month”, and from the common man’s point of view, that doesn’t look like a sign of a deal to come. But where’s the fun in that? Simmons is bound to get dealt sooner or later as his camp and the 76ers engage in their own Wild West-like standoff. He loses value each day with teams knowing there’s little chance the 76ers start the regular season, let alone another playoff run, with him on the roster. And well, this is a Kings blogpost so….let’s imagine his fit as a potential Sacramento King!
Analyzing how a possible trade addition of Ben Simmons can impact the Sacramento Kings offensively, defensively, and in a playoff scenario.
Our very own Austin Carroll drummed up some interesting trade packages for the disgruntled 76ers All-Star and we’ll use these to get this piece started off. Since Fox and Haliburton seem to be out of the picture, that leaves us with one package left.
This trade proposal sees the Kings part with freshly drafted prospect Davion Mitchell, three-point sharpshooter Buddy Hield, solve their own disgruntled player issue in Marvin Bagley and include three first-round draft picks (though irrelevant, we’ll say these picks are for 2022, 2024, and 2026 due to the Stepien rule) to acquire Simmons.
I would add Seth Curry to this deal from the 76ers side because A) His contributions are met, and even exceeded, with the addition of Buddy Hield and B) Including his roughly $8.2 million salary lowers the luxury tax burden the 76ers will experience this season. Thus, the final trade ends up being Simmons and Curry for Mitchell, Hield, Bagley, and the aforementioned draft capital. Not a half-bad return for Philadelphia and Monte McNair marks his first huge splash as Kings GM.
Let’s say the Sacramento Kings trade for Ben Simmons. What could his role look like within the starting five?
So after all this, the Kings head into the season with some semblance of a starting rotation around Fox, Haliburton, Harrison Barnes, Simmons, and Richaun Holmes. Immediately, you can sense the upgrade that group gets defensively by adding Simmons. He’s an excellent point-of-attack defender, his huge wingspan allows him to muck up entry passes into the post and kick-outs to the corner, he can crash-and-bang with back-to-the-basket bigs, and he’s recorded excellent steal rates in his career.
Perhaps most importantly, he gives the Kings a number one option on defense to assign to number one options on opposing offenses, something the Kings have sorely lacked. For reference, Kings players defensively last year according to BBall Index’s D-LEBRON were, well, not great. With a minimum threshold of 500 minutes played, just three Kings players graded out above average (the three being Hassan Whiteside at 1.01, Holmes at 0.89, and Delon Wright at 0.85) and two of them are gone! Simmons recorded a 1.94 in that category, among the highest for players at his position.
(Side note: Click here if you want a detailed explanation of how LEBRON as a statistic works, but to sum it up, it’s a weight of a player’s impact using box score statistics combined with the weightings of PIPM, a box-score statistic created by Jacob Goldstein that now belongs to the Washington Wizards, and RAPM, a statistic that feels out a player’s true value by isolating their impact from their teammates. The data is then adjusted for luck and variance so that statistical anomalies do not factor into the final product. There are LEBRON calculations for both offensive and defense, as well as providing an approximate value of how many wins those numbers are worth. Great one-number statistic. Enough of the detour, back to the article.)
Numbers are numbers, but If you want a visual sense of what Simmons could bring to the Kings defensively, look no further than this clip reel posted by the NBA of Simmons’ defensive highlights this season (up until mid-February):
Highlight clips are set to make anyone look good, but this clip shows off a little of everything Simmons has in his toolbox on the defensive end. In the first clip, he flashes his pick-pocket abilities and swipes Jeff Teague for a quick bucket. He’s learned to perfect his timing when going in for jabs or lunging in to intercept an ill-advised pass. A couple of clips later and he’s hustling to the other end of the floor to block an Anfernee Simons layup ala LeBron. His motor runs hot, and when it does you’re bound to have difficulty making the simplest of passes as his length disrupts any action.
My favorite clip of his starts at 3:51 in a game against Cleveland, when he comes into the play from the weak-side as a help defender to block the passing lane Darius Garland has to Collin Sexton. He recognizes that there’s no need to pull off completely and contest the shot since teammate Tobias Harris is there – albeit flailing around – and he guesses right to cleanly pluck the ball out of the air. In other words, he has game-changing defensive potential.
We all know Ben Simmons is a talented defender, but what could he bring to the Sacramento Kings offensively?
Simmons also offers the Kings something teams seldom have in their starting lineup: tertiary playmaking. Being a top-notch passer in his own right, you can be rest assured that a Kings offense involving all three of Fox, Haliburton and Simmons will have the ball zipping all over the floor, for better or worse.
It also gives Simmons an opportunity to play off-ball alongside capable passers, something he was never able to do in Philadelphia with the dearth of playmaking they have in their starting five. He could serve as the roll man in P&R plays with Fox for easy finishes at the cup, and he could prove himself as a reliable lob target for either of his guards.
He isn’t exactly lighting up the corners off-screens or off-the-catch, but you could imagine scenarios where Simmons and Fox come off screens and attack the basket. With Haliburton’s excellent shooting, that could create just enough gravity to leave paint room to be exploited by Fox’s quick-twitch athleticism and Simmons’ strength.
Notice how I didn’t mention Barnes’ outside shooting and Holmes as a rim-runner? Basketball jargon aside, this hypothetical Sacramento Kings team has the potential to be exciting in the open court.
While Ben Simmons is a man of many talents, it’s necessary to address how his shooting struggles would affect the Sacramento Kings.
However, there’s a sizable downside that comes as baggage with Simmons, and that wouldn’t exactly be helped by going to the Kings. Yes, three-point shooting and outside shooting in general will be a concern if Fox’s shooting doesn’t stabilize and Simmons continues to be timid outside the paint, no matter how many workout videos get posted on Twitter. Two legitimate shooting threats from beyond in Haliburton and Barnes just isn’t enough in today’s NBA and they could run into trouble offensively against a team with size and length at every position, as they’d be well equipped to wall off the paint.
This problem would be further exacerbated in a playoff scenario when the open court is sealed off and transition buckets are hard to come by. Hack-a-Ben was in full force in this past playoff run and a ghastly 34 percent mark from the stripe cost the 76ers their first conference finals appearance of The Process.
It had such a profound effect on Simmons’ psyche that he avoided finishes at the basket in fear of getting fouled; the first domino to fall in this saga. If the Kings can’t drum up some half-court offense, they’ll be in trouble. It’d be up to coach Luke Walton and his staff to curate some lineups to address this looming issue.
In summary, Simmons is a great player and brings a lot of what the current Kings lack, so it’s good to see the Kings doing their due diligence on him. However, the reason why he’s available to begin with is well-documented, and there’s a serious championship-costing downside here. Any team, not just the Kings, would need to make sure they have the infrastructure in place to support perhaps the most polarizing player in the NBA.