There’s been a lot of Ben on our timeline today, huh? Following his formal trade request and refusal to attend training camp, fans all around the league are speculating just where Ben Simmons might find his next home. Personally, I think I’d enjoy it quite a lot if that home was with the Sacramento Kings.
Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer broke the big news, reporting, “[Simmons] no longer wants to be a Sixer and does not intend to report to training camp.” This news likely lowers the star’s trade value and opens up a massive opportunity for a team believing they’re just one piece away.
It’s not hard to see why a team would believe that. Simmons was practically born into a body made for basketball, in what is essentially the prototype for the perfect NBA player. All except for one important caveat, he can’t shoot. And he probably never will be up to that task, so how exactly do you value a player like that? If the answer to that question was obvious, then every general manager in the NBA wouldn’t be stuck asking themselves that very same question.
All we know for certain is that Simmons is an incredibly talented player with but a few big faults—and believe me, they are big—in his game.
Whether or not you’re an advocate of this deal going through, just how exactly would Ben Simmons fit in the Sacramento Kings rotation?
Entering the second season of his maximum deal, Simmons is under team control for the next four years, this is very important. Teams could look at this as a positive, knowing he wouldn’t be a flight risk and they could spend much time developing his game and integrating Simmons into the community for nearly half a decade.
Or, on the other hand, teams may view this as a negative being forced to doll out well over $30 million—and up to $38 million in the final year—per season for a guy who may just be a glorified role player. Regardless of what teams may think, a 25-year-old player who secures three All-Star appearances, two All-Defensive Team selections, and an All-NBA nod in the span of just four seasons in the league is always going to draw attention.
If the Kings were to trade for Simmons, they’d have three trade packages on the table worth presenting to Philadelphia. Let’s take a look at each one and see how each scenario would play out hypothetically if it were to happen.
Sacramento Kings trades for Ben Simmons: Swapping stars for De’Aaron Fox
To kick things off, we’re starting with the transaction that the 76ers are most likely to pursue in trade negotiations with the Sacramento Kings. Philadelphia needs a lead guard, and if they can’t get the likes of Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, or Zach LaVine, then De’Aaron Fox is hardly a bad consolation prize.
That being said, this is also probably the deal Kings fans least want to see go down, as it requires banking on Simmons committing to building Sacramento into a winning program while simultaneously trading away the team’s best player. To be honest, it’s a lot to ask of Simmons.
The only reason worth entertaining this one for me personally is the inclusion of Tyrese Maxey, who has shown on occasion the potential to become an electric scoring guard in this league. Per Jason Dumas of Bleacher Report, agent Rich Paul is attempting to get both of his clients—Simmons and Maxey—out of Philly.
This opens the door for Sacramento to potentially recoup some guard talent and dampen the loss of Fox. Still, I’m really struggling to buy into it. I firmly believe Haliburton will be a very successful player in the league, while Davion Mitchell and Maxey have a good chance to find a place in the league as well. But Fox has already done those things, so betting on these guys to work AND Simmons to thrive in Sacramento feels like risky business.
Projected Starting Lineup:
- Davion Mitchell
- Tyrese Haliburton
- Harrison Barnes
- Ben Simmons
- Richaun Holmes
Estimated Record (Hollinger’s Analysis):
(33-49)
Sacramento Kings trades for Ben Simmons: Unloading all the assets
If the Kings could pull this off, it would have to feel like highway robbery. In this day and age, fans of bad teams can be irrationally attached to draft picks and young prospects, because that’s all we really know. But when you get the chance to move these projects for an established All-NBA presence, you do it.
Unfortunately, this could mean an early end to Davion Mitchell‘s time in Sacramento. Ideally, the Kings find a way to retain him in trade talks. But realistically speaking, that’s going to be nearly impossible to pull off, especially considering the 76ers will find suitors in other places if the Kings are set on low-balling their offer.
This is a hefty price to pay, but one of the only scenarios where I could see Philadelphia potentially accepting an offer that doesn’t include a star guard. Buddy Hield would immediately provide that three-point threat the 76ers have been searching for, stretching the floor for Joel Embiid and lighting it up from downtown.
Meanwhile, Mitchell fits in perfectly with Philadelphia’s gritty defensive culture and Marvin Bagley serves as a no-risk, high-reward reclamation project worth taking on. Those three draft picks shouldn’t be forgotten either, as they stand to potentially end up being much more valuable when coming from the Kings than say, Golden State.
For Sacramento on the other hand, this deal yields obviously the greatest return in terms of winning now and making a playoff push. This starting five could be a real threat, and I believe Hollinger’s analysis severely underestimates how this team would fare over the course of a full 82 games.
Projected Starting Lineup:
- De’Aaron Fox
- Tyrese Haliburton
- Harrison Barnes
- Ben Simmons
- Richaun Holmes
Projected Record:
(35-47)
Sacramento Kings trades for Ben Simmons: Throwing a Hail Mary for Haliburton
In terms of how realistic these trades feel, this one might be the closest to being on target. The 76ers are clearly looking to add not only quality guard talent now, but also stock up on young assets that increase their future flexibility. A player like Tyrese Haliburton would be very desirable for Philadelphia, which is precisely why I feel uncomfortable at the thought of moving him.
Haliburton is certainly not on the level of Fox—at least not yet—but his high basketball IQ and upward trajectory make it difficult to stomach the thought of losing him, the quality veterans, AND draft picks on top of it. I think trading away Fox in a one-to-one swap or something more closely resembling the first trade scenario might actually be preferable to me over this. Here’s how a trade revolving around Haliburton and Simmons would likely look.
This trade is also very inconvenient because it forces either one of either Hield or Harrison Barnes to be on the move. the 76ers would likely prefer to get Hield because they need all the shooters they can get, but this forces the Kings to play either Fox or Mitchell at the two. Sending out your only two starting-caliber shooting guards and overall crippling your perimeter scoring is not ideal, to say the least.
The Sacramento Kings could try to move Barnes instead of Hield, but this likely results in the 76ers asking for more draft capital as Harrison is redundant next to Tobias Harris. I’d also argue that Barnes is more essential when it comes to helping this current rendition of the Kings actually win games, so that looks like a lose-lose situation.
This deal just feels like it involves far too much risk on both sides, and when your job is on the line as a general manager all it takes is one botched decision for you to join the unemployment line. If this trade is proposed, I’d prefer if both sides held off and looked over one of the earlier hypothetical possibilities instead.
Projected Starting Lineup:
- Davion Mitchell
- De’Aaron Fox
- Harrison Barnes
- Ben Simmons
- Richaun Holmes
Projected Record:
(35-47)
So what did we learn today? It seems that a fair Ben Simmons trade package is harder to work out than first imagined; I for one certainly learned that Hollinger’s win projections make absolutely no sense. Either way, I believe Simmons in Sacramento would make for a much better team in realization than the formula seems to indicate.