After putting together one of the best offseasons in the league, the Sacramento Kings have a real chance of making a run in the Western Conference this season.
Unfortunately, the conference is as talent-laden as ever, and in order to win multiple playoff series, the Kings are going to have to go through the gauntlet. No team that makes the play-in/playoffs will be a cakewalk, but there are five teams that will really keep the Kings on their toes.
In no specific order, here are the five Western Conference teams the Kings need to worry the most about next season.
Denver Nuggets
Listen, I will be the first person to tell you that the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope greatly diminishes the Denver Nuggets' chances of competing for a conference title.
However, you can never count out a team that touts the best player in the world (Nikola Jokic) and arguably the best duo in the world (Jokic and Jamal Murray). Yes, that tandem is now without their perimeter defensive ace, but there is a chance that their young trio fills the void left by his departure.
Plus, given the two team's stylistic similarities and the Nuggets' championship pedigree, the Nuggets are kind of like a big brother to our Kings, and we all know how hard it is to vanquish your older sibling.
Oklahoma City Thunder
This one is super obvious, hence their presence on the thumbnail of this post. Not only were the Oklahoma City Thunder the number one team in the West last year, but they also addressed their two biggest weaknesses this offseason (without having to sacrifice anyone from their young core).
The main reasons the Thunder lost to the Dallas Mavericks last postseason are their lack of physicality (the Thunder were 28th and 29th in offensive and defensive rebounding rate last year, respectively) and role players who they can trust to defend and space the floor.
To fill these holes, the Thunder signed Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. Last year, Hartenstein was in the 98th percentile in offensive rebounding and the 87th percentile in defensive rebounding (per Dunks & Threes). And they traded Josh Giddey (arguably their weakest link) for Alex Caruso (without giving up any draft picks). Caruso is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball (99th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus) and a reliable 3-point shooter (41% last season).
This is all without mentioning the fact that their holy trinity of stars (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams) now has some playoff experience under their belt. All things considered, the Thunder are the frontrunners in the West, and the Kings will need to get past them if they hope to win the conference.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last year, the Minnesota Timberwolves won 56 games, finishing with the third-best record in the Western Conference and fourth-best record in the entire NBA. In the playoffs, they embarrassed the Phoenix Suns before dethroning the Nuggets en route to their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2004.
The team that accomplished all of this brought back all of their top seven players (Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns, Naz Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker) in minutes played. Two of those players (Edwards and McDaniels) will still be under 25 when the season starts, opening the door to one (or both) of them taking a significant step forward in 2024-25.
Along with maintaining their current core, they also bolstered it by trading future draft capital to acquire the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Rob Dillingham.
Like the Kings, the Timberwolves are a relatively new team in the Western Conference's upper echelon (after years of being in the doldrum). But since this iteration of the Timberwolves has two playoff series wins compared to our zero, we are going to be chasing their ghost heading into the start of the 2024-25 season.
Dallas Mavericks
Do you know who is arguably even more dangerous than the Timberwolves? The team that knocked them (and the Thunder) out of the playoffs: the Mavericks.
And after getting handedly dismantled by the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals, the Mavericks were able to use the little resources they had to address their main roster flaw. The main reason the series was so lopsided is that the Mavericks didn't have as many two-way wings/forwards as the Celtics.
So, this offseason, the Mavericks aimed to close that gap, essentially swapping out Derrick Jones Jr. for Naji Marshall, Josh Green for Klay Thompson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. for Quentin Grimes.
In Marshall's case, he is an equal/better defender than Jones while also being a better spacer. Last season, Marshall hit 41.7% of his wide-open threes (per NBA.com). Meanwhile, Jones hit just 35.1% of his wide-open triples.
Thompson isn't as frenetic of a defender as Green, but he at least gives you more size (6'7 compared to Green's 6'5). And it goes without saying (as I proceed to say it) that the former Splash Brother is a more reliable shooter than the streaky Green.
Hardaway's reputation as a shooter has always been overblown. For his career, he is just a 36% 3-point shooter. That is 1.1% lower than Grimes' career average (37.1%). This says nothing about Grimes' superior impact on the defensive side of the ball. Last year, Grimes was in the 79th percentile in DEF EPM (in a down year), while Hardaway was in the 15th percentile.
Memphis Grizzlies
On the surface, the Memphis Grizzlies' presence on this list may seem strange. Why would the Kings need to worry about a team that they won 19 more games (the Grizzlies went 27-55) than last year?
However, those who have been paying attention know that if the Grizzlies can stay healthy this year, they boast one of the deepest teams in the Western Conference.
There is their Big Three: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. The latter two got some valuable repetitions as primary options while the former was out serving a suspension/due to injury. Then there is their three-headed monster of tantalizing young wings/forwards in GG Jackson, Vince Williams Jr., and Santi Aldama – all of whom flashed the potential to be dynamic role players on a more cohesive roster.
That's all without mentioning the presence of the battle-tested Marcus Smart, the now-healthy Brandon Clarke, or the former two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey. If they can avoid the injury bug this year (and Edey doesn't end up being the second-coming of Boban Marjanovic), the Grizzlies have as good of a top nine as anyone in the NBA.
Fortunately for the Kings, the Grizzlies have had trouble avoiding that disease.