4 Sacramento Kings Players poised to have a breakout 2024-25 season

Every season, there are a handful of players who absolutely blow past the production they demonstrated in previous seasons. These "breakout" players enable teams to become greater than the sum of their parts because they offer a level of impact that most people weren't anticipating heading into the season.

For the Sacramento Kings – a team that is good but by no means a surefire inner circle title contender – if they hope to seriously compete for a championship, they will need to roster one or more of these breakout players. So, in an attempt to manifest this occurrence, here are the four best candidates (in order from least likely to most) to have a breakthrough season.

4. Kevin Huerter

This one is kind of cheating since what I am predicting here is more of a bounce-back season than a breakthrough one, and that's why I have him at number four in our countdown.

Anyway, Kevin Huerter went from one of the team's most important players in 2022-23 to someone who has been included in a bunch of trade rumors this offseason. However, after surviving the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade, it seems pretty likely that Huerter will survive the guillotine for now.

A big reason why Huerter has become more expendable is that he had a down shooting year – going from a 40.2% 3-point shooter in 2022-23 to a 36.1% in 2023-24. But as we've discussed before, it is very common for great shooters to have down seasons like the one Huerter just had.

If that ends up being the case for Huerter, he'll make the numbers he put up last year look like child's play.

3. Colby Jones

We've seen before that late first round/early second round "3-and-D" picks can sometimes take a year before becoming productive rotational players. For instance, Quentin Grimes (25th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft) played less than 800 minutes in his rookie year before blossoming into an important starter on a playoff team in Year Two.

While Colby Jones (34th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft) doesn't have the shooting indicators that Grimes possessed, he could experience a similar maturation pattern.

Given how deep the Kings are at shooting guard/small forward, it is unlikely that Jones will need to start at any point next season. However, if he can become a consistent contributor off the bench, that would be a massive development for a player who only logged 186 minutes last year.

Jones flashed a great deal of something the Kings desperately need: positional rim protection. Last season, Jones finished in the 74th percentile in block rate among all positions (per Dunks & Threes). That's a marvelous feat for someone who stands at just 6'6. He also showed sound flashes as a driver (see clip below) and connective tissue passer.

I touched on the shooting earlier. That's the main reason Jones is only the third-most likely to have a breakout season. Jones hit just 2 of his 22 threes (9.1%) and 6 of his 11 free throws (54.5%) last season. Not necessarily the marks you want to see from someone you hope will develop into a 3-and-D role player.

(Sidebar #1: Jones' college shooting marks weren't that promising, either. He hit 34.4% of his 218 3-point attempts and 67.9% of his 308 3-point attempts.)

2. Keon Ellis

Keon Ellis was the biggest bright spot of the Kings' season last year. However, most of his damage was done at the end of the season. In his final 19 games of the season, Ellis averaged 9.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.6 SPG, and 0.8 BPG while shooting 45.9% from three and posting a net rating of +8.1 per 100 possessions. Now, imagine what that might look like if we get a full season of the Ellis experience.

Next year, we will certainly get our chance, as Ellis has a real shot of starting at shooting guard over Huerter and Malik Monk. If Ellis can extend his outside shooting (41.7% from three) and stout defense (93rd percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus) across an 82-game season while also flashing some growth as a driver and playmaker (it would also help if he committed a few fewer fouls), he could be the keystone that unlocks the two-way balance the Kings' starting lineup needs in order to make a deep run.

Ellis has the chance to go from a hidden gem to a legitimate starting-caliber player. Such a development would be a massive breakthrough, but that would pale in comparison to this potential ascension.

1. Keegan Murray

At the beginning of this month, I said that Keegan Murray should be deemed untouchable in almost any trade negotiation. That's because his development is the key to the Kings ever truly becoming a title contender.

Between DeRozan, De'Aaron Fox, and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings have a ton of on-ball scoring and playmaking. What they need around them is size, shooting, and rim protection. At 6'8, with a career 38.4% 3-point percentage and a block rate that placed in the 64th percentile last season, Murray is just that type of guy.

The reason Murray is poised for a breakthrough is similar to the one we outlined for Huerter a few slides back. After a rookie season where he mainly operated as a sharpshooter, Murray returned as a better defender and more confident driver in Year Two.

Unfortunately, his growth in those areas coincided with a down shooting year, as Murray went from a 41.1% 3-point shooter in 2022-23 to a 35.8% one in 2023-24. Even if all that changes next year is that Murray's 3-point shooting jumps closer back to his normal level, it'll lead to a massive upgrade in his production.

But if Murray sees a leap in shooting and also further sharpens his other skills, he could join the illustrious tier of elite role players alongside guys like OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Aaron Gordon.

If that transpires, not only would that be the biggest breakthrough on the team, but that arguably could be the biggest breakthrough in the league.