De’Aaron Fox has been one of the biggest parts of the early success from the young Sacramento Kings. But can he do enough to earn the title of “Most Improved Player” in the NBA?
One of the biggest storylines of this young NBA season has been the surprisingly good start for the Sacramento Kings. There are many reasons why the Kings have been better than anybody expected, including much of their own fanbase. But one of the biggest reasons has been De’Aaron Fox who has taken a leap in his sophomore year.
Fox has been so impressive this season that there is some early talk of him being a contender for the Most Improved Player award, an award no Sacramento player has ever won since 1986 when the award was first created. This would certainly make for an exciting stamp on an unexpected season. But can Fox win it?
There is no question that De’Aaron Fox has improved. The question is by how much? I thought it would be interesting to dig into what kind of a leap previous winners of the MIP award had taken and compare them to the leap Fox has currently made. Let us see what our young future All-Star needs to do and maintain to earn some hardware in June.
(To keep things simple, we are just going to look at the last ten years, mostly to keep the analysis in line with what modern voters look for in an improved player.)
The Leap
The first thing you notice when you look at the list of Most Improved Player award winners is what good company they are to be in. Of the 33 players to earn the honor, 16 went on to become All-Stars. As well, when you look at the winners from 2011 and on, it is veritable who is who of the top players in the NBA. Kevin Love, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, C.J. McCollum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Victor Oladipo have all won the award in the last ten years.
But what is the leap these players have had to make in order to earn their award?
Let us take a look at those past ten winners (the other four: Aaron Brooks, Danny Granger, Ryan Anderson, and Goran Dragic) and see if we can pick up on any trends.
Average MIP line: 20.6 ppg, 6.4 RPG, 3.9 APG, 0.6 SPG, 46.2% FG, 40.8% 3PT, 81.8% FT, 35.6 mpg
Average net difference: 7.1 ppg, 1.4 RPG, 1 APG, 0.2 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 2.3% FG, 3.3% 3PT, 3.8% FT, 5.9 mpg
What immediately stands out is that the winners for the MIP award have an uptick in points a game and improved shooting. This should not be altogether too surprising, as it is the most immediate way to gauge how someone is affecting the game and their team (if not necessarily the most accurate). It also rewards an increase in minutes, which tends to indicate an increased role and responsibility.
That all follows. Now, let us take a look at De’Aaron Fox’s current season and compare it to his rookie reason last year.
Current season: 17.4 ppg, 4.0 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 47.1% FG, 38.5% 3PT, 69.2% FT, 32.5 mpg
Net difference: 5.8 ppg, 1.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 0.2 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 5.9% FG, 7.8% 3PT, -3.1% FT, 4.7 mpg
So, yeah. The thing that stands out the most there is the almost 6% difference in field goal percentage, to say nothing of the almost 8% uptick in three-point shooting. If nothing else, if Fox’s improved shooting holds, he definitely has a case for most improved. It helps that he has been doing it all in a new offensive scheme that showcases his abilities on an entertaining team that is making some noise.
Team Success
Of course, stats are not everything. NBA award voters tend to give the nod to players that help their team win. It would be beneficial to take a look at how many wins the teams of the past ten winners have accumulated to see where the Kings need to be by the end of the year.
Average wins: 41.3
Average win share: 9.1
On the whole, over the last decade, winning the Most Improved Player award involves being on at least a team over .500 by the end of the year. More than that, the most improved player has played a significant role in those wins, with an average win share of just over nine. Let us compare that to De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings. As of this writing, the Kings sit at 10-11, which would put them on pace for about 39-40 wins this season. Fox’s current average win share, however, is only 1.3.
Can the Kings get to 41? It is not impossible, but it is fairly unlikely. For reference, that would involve a 14-win jump from last year. The Kings are not incapable of doing that, but it is rare to see that type of improvement without a significant move the offseason prior, like a marquee free agent signing. As far as win share, that particular stat is best measured using full-season statistics, so this will fluctuate by the end of the season. But it is something to consider right now.
The Obstacle
What is the biggest thing standing in De’Aaron Fox’s way from receiving this honor? Second-year players do not really win the Most Improved Player Award, at least not in recent history. The perception may be that players are expected to improve from their first to second years, whereas marked improvements later in a career is more of an achievement. This would be a shame as De’Aaron Fox has done more than just “improve”. Over the course of just one summer, he has improved upon the biggest weakness in his game (shooting), while also becoming the alpha dog on a team that has taken everyone by surprise.
Looking at just the numbers, the increased role, and the overall success, De’Aaron Fox has a clear case to be the most improved player for the 2018-2019 season. Unfortunately, he will have some recent history to buck in order to do it.