Rounding Out Sacramento’s Big Three

Zack Zolmer

Feb 25, 2015; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Rudy Gay (8) and center DeMarcus Cousins (15) argue a call with the referee during the second quarter of the game against the Memphis Grizzlies at Sleep Train Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

It’s one of the longest-standing myths in professional basketball: the proverbial “big three.” It’s often the talk of the NBA, and every team’s got one.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. The Los Angeles Clippers have Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. The Dallas Mavericks have Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons and ~~DeAndre Jordan~~ Wesley Matthews (sort of).

Ben McLemore?

If Ben McLemore is going to challenge for the title of third-best in his third year he’s going to have to step it up, though he’s already a valuable member of this Kings team.

Last season, as Sacramento’s starting shooting guard in all 82 regular season games, McLemore’s improvement stretched across almost every column of the box score, especially his shooting: the 22-year-old made 45 more threes, raised his two-point percentage from .419 to .507, upped his overall field goal percentage 61 points (.376 to .437), and his effective field goal percentage was to .521, up from the .446 mark he set as a rookie, per Basketball-Reference.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

And Ben is already one of the team’s best three-point shooters—likely to better last season’s .358 three-point percentage.

McLemore’s production is as promising as it is frustrating. He’s teased us with flashes of a dynamic offensive game, but consistency remains his cardinal issue. His on-ball defense — early last season, in particular — was energetic and inspiring, but lulls in focus and concentration ultimately clouded his effectiveness on that end.

Still, Ben’s 0.8 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) translates to 2.16 wins over replacement, per Basketball-Reference, good for fourth on the team behind Cousins, Gay and Darren Collison.

More than any other player on Sacramento’s roster (with the exception of Willie Cauley-Stein), McLemore’s potential standing as a member of the Kings’ big three relies largely on just that: his potential.

Next: Maybe At Small Forward?

Apr 7, 2015; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi (18) signals to the crowd after making a three point shot against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the first quarter at Sleep Train Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Omri Casspi?

Dollar for dollar, Omri Casspi might’ve been the biggest-value bench scorer in the entire NBA last year.

In his fifth NBA season (his third with the Kings after a three-year hiatus), Casspi posted career highs in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, two-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, free throws (attempted and converted), free throw percentage, assists, assist percentage and player efficiency rating (14.4). He shot roughly 40 percent from three-point range and, per ESPN, his .580 true shooting percentage was tied for sixth among small forwards with, you guessed it, Paul Pierce.

The lion’s share of his statistics only improved in new head coach George Karl’s offense—a system as seemingly custom-fit for Omri as a crown is done for a King.

When Casspi wasn’t skipping towards the basket in search of close twos or spotting up for high-percentage threes in half court sets, his offensive production came via transition baskets. Per NBA.com, plays strictly in transition made up 24.5 percent of Omri’s total offense, good for 24th in the league. The more instances where you can attack the opposing defense before they are set and balanced, the better.

This 17-point performance against the visiting New Orleans Pelicans is a fairly accurate encapsulation of Casspi’s offensive tendencies last season:

Ultimately, however, is Casspi a member of Sacramento’s big three? In short, no. For all his creativity on offense, he lacks any consistent ability to stay in front of his counterpart on defense. And his scoring, while exciting, is mainly the result of the system he plays in, as a supplementary piece for better-blessed players.

But that’s not necessarily a bad thing, like, at all. Omri is the type of player that had long-since vanished (or more likely, fled) from Sleep Train Arena—one capable of scoring efficiently and deferring when necessary, playing within an offense instead of trying to be one’s entirety.

Next: A Star Guard, Perhaps?

Apr 18, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Rajon Rondo (9) takes the ball to the basket during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets in game one of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Rajon Rondo?

The Kings’ biggest free agency splash was also its riskiest. The contract itself (one year, $10 million) won’t shackle Sacramento, but concerns over Rajon Rondo’s fit on this team are legitimate.

Last season as a Celtic and then a Maverick, here’s Rondo’s shot chart, in which the shading of each zone is measured against the NBA average in that zone:

Rajon Rondo’s 2014-15 NBA Shot Chart, via Vorped.

Good from the corners, decent from the top of the key, below average everywhere else. In an offense that relies heavily (almost completely) on its players’ ability to shoot and space the floor, this is less than ideal.

To boot, Rondo has never played in every game of a full, 82-game NBA regular season. After missing only one regular season game as a 23-year-old on the 2009-10 Boston Celtics, Rondo’s regular season games played, in order, are as follows: 68, 53 (out of 66 games due to the lockout), 38, 30, 68.

In other words, from the start of his age-24 season on, Rajon has suited up for just over 65 percent of the regular season games his teams have played. In the same time frame, DeMarcus Cousins has played in roughly 89 percent of Sacramento’s scheduled games, Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook’s number is 87 percent, and Lakers two-guard Kobe Bryant has taken the court in approximately 66 percent of LA’s contests, per Basketball-Reference.

The question is, are Rondo’s recent performances an anomaly, or a new reality? Who’s to say. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban attributed the 29-year-old’s lackluster stay in Dallas to a poor basketball fit and little else, and that could be the case.

The challenge of integrating a new point guard into a pre-established offense mid-season is a vast one, especially considering the difference in philosophies between Rondo and the point guard who preceded him (Jameer Nelson, whose effectiveness — at this point in his career — relies less on having the ball in his hands than Rondo’s does).

George Karl and the coaching staff have a summer to formulate and fine-tune an offense around their new floor leader. Rick Carlisle had no such luxury. Karl and company have a full training camp with Rajon, to experiment with sets and play types and test which player combinations work and, conversely, which don’t. Carlisle did this during the middle of last season.

This season, Rajon Rondo should be Sacramento’s number three man. I mean, that’s the idea, anyway. Despite character concerns and vitriolic attacks on the point guard’s mentality and commitment, Vlade Divac and company saw in Rondo an inventive playmaker, cunning slasher and gifted passer. All are vital components to a dribble-drive offense—one they clearly feel Rajon is qualified to captain.

The Kings don’t need All-Star Rondo, just better point guard play, in general. Last season’s bench was an underachieving, underwhelming assortment of mismatched players, and you can circle the epicenter of that dysfunction around the backup point guard spot. Now, having the flexibility to elect Darren Collison — solid starter, elite backup — as your bench’s leader makes Sacramento that much more dynamic. After all, he’s pretty capable in his own right.

Next: The Real Star Of The Kings

Jan 28, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Sacramento Kings point guard Darren Collison (7) goes to the basket against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Kings 119-102. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Darren Collison?

It’s probably premature to slap newcomer Rondo on the top of the depth chart considering the incumbent’s performance last year. In his first season in Sacramento, starter Darren Collison was an above-average complement to a starting cast of scorers, who needed a game-managing point guard capable of deferring mostly, but scoring when necessary.

That’s exactly what Collison provided. He was consistent, not flashy, on both ends of the floor, leading an active defense and grind-it-out offense during early stretches of last season.

Then Michael Malone was fired, and everyone suffered. Then Collison injured a core muscle, and missed the rest of the season. He played his last game on February 5 in a 23-point loss to Dallas, five games before George Karl would begin coaching the Sacramento Kings.

Undoubtedly, when healthy, Collison was Sacramento’s third-best player.

Here’s last season’s shot chart:

Darren Collison’s 2014-15 NBA Shot Chart, via Vorped.

Or, more simply:

Darren Collison’s Simplified 2014-15 NBA Shot Chart, via Vorped.

For the most part, Collison coupled a diverse shot variety with impressive consistency. He beat defenders to the rim in transition, converted pull-up jumpers out of pick-and-roll sets, and could spot-up from behind the arc when the exploits of Cousins and Gay demanded most of the opposition’s attention. He did it as the 41st-ranked point guard in usage percentage at 20.8 percent, which speaks to his efficiency.

But can your team’s third-best player be a backup point guard? VP Vlade didn’t hand Rajon Rondo $10 million to come off the bench, and Rajon Rondo sure as hell didn’t commit to Sacramento to be anything but a starter. Sure, Rondo and Collison figure to play alongside one another in some small lineups (George Karl has a history of doing so with his PGs), but it’s very unlikely Collison starts at one of the two guard spots given his relatively small stature and proven effectiveness at leading a bench unit.

Ultimately, it comes down to this: A decorated All-Star career aside, Rondo is coming off one of his worst seasons, during a treacherous time in his career arc for someone with an extensive injury history (transitioning into his 30s), now playing with largely-unfamiliar players for an unfamiliar organization.

Meanwhile, Collison is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having previously played with Ben McLemore and Omri Casspi and Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins. Until Rondo separates himself, you have to give Collison the respect he rightly deserves.

So… yes, I guess. Sacramento’s third-best player can be its backup point guard, and, right now, he is.

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Zack Zolmer